As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, speculation about its potential impacts on the economy has grown. Many are particularly curious about how the housing market might react. Both major candidates—Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump—have very different political and economic approaches. Understanding their positions can help homebuyers, sellers, and investors prepare for changes in the market.
Kamala Harris: A Focus on Affordable Housing and Equity
Kamala Harris, as a Democratic candidate, is expected to prioritize housing affordability, access, and equity. During her time as Vice President, she supported President Biden’s policies addressing housing shortages. She also worked to reduce barriers to homeownership for middle- and lower-income Americans. If Harris wins, her administration will likely pursue policies that emphasize equity, affordable housing, and tenant protections.
Key Policies and Potential Impacts:
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Affordable Housing Initiatives: Harris advocates for more affordable housing options. Her administration could expand federal funding, offer tax incentives to developers, and strengthen the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC). These actions could increase housing supply in urban and suburban areas. As a result, home prices might stabilize in these regions.
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First-Time Homebuyer Assistance: Harris supports down payment assistance programs, especially for communities historically excluded from homeownership. Expanding these programs could increase demand for lower-priced homes and potentially drive prices up in those segments.
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Rent Control and Tenant Protections: Harris backs tenant protections, including rent control. These measures can stabilize rental markets but might discourage developers from building in regulated areas.
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Climate and Housing: Harris focuses on sustainable housing and climate-resilient infrastructure. Increased funding for energy-efficient homes may influence housing costs, especially in disaster-prone regions.
If Harris wins, expect policies that make housing more accessible. These policies may help first-time buyers but could face resistance from developers and investors.
Donald Trump: A Market-Driven Approach
Donald Trump’s previous presidency emphasized a market-driven housing strategy. His approach favored deregulation and tax incentives to stimulate real estate development. If Trump wins, his administration will likely continue policies that support developers, investors, and homeowners, particularly those in higher income brackets.
Key Policies and Potential Impacts:
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Deregulation and Development: Trump promotes deregulation in the housing sector. His administration could reduce zoning and environmental restrictions that limit development. This might lead to a construction boom, especially in suburban and rural areas. As a result, home prices in those regions could drop.
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Tax Cuts and Incentives: Trump favors tax policies that benefit real estate investors. Expanding the 1031 exchange, for example, allows investors to defer capital gains taxes when reinvesting. These policies could increase investor demand and drive up prices in high-demand areas.
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Less Focus on Affordable Housing: Trump has historically focused on homeownership incentives for middle- and upper-income Americans. Returning to these policies could reduce federal support for low-income housing and worsen shortages.
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Interest Rates and Monetary Policy: Trump cannot directly set interest rates, but his fiscal policies can influence the Federal Reserve. Low-interest-rate policies in his previous term helped the housing market. A repeat could encourage homebuying but also risk overheating certain markets.
If Trump wins, expect policies favoring deregulation, investor incentives, and property development. Housing supply may grow, but affordable housing for low-income populations could remain limited.
Election Impacts on the Housing Market
The 2024 election will significantly affect the U.S. housing market. If Harris wins, policies will likely focus on affordability, equity, and sustainability. These could benefit first-time buyers and renters but might create regulatory hurdles for developers. If Trump wins, expect deregulation, tax incentives, and development-focused policies. Housing supply could increase, but protections for low-income renters may be limited.
Both candidates’ housing policies will affect market sectors differently. Buyers, sellers, and investors should follow their platforms closely as the election unfolds.